Buffalo Is 2-0 and Its Own Defensive Coordinator Says That Is Not Okay Long-Term
Jim Leonhard promised his new system would free Ed Oliver. Two games in, without Oliver, he is describing his own unit as three-and-out or touchdown.
There is a particular kind of honesty that only shows up when a team is winning. Buffalo is two-and-zero. And the man in charge of the defense has just described his own unit in terms no coordinator uses about something he thinks is working. The Bills have allowed thirty-one points in each of their first two games — an average with no averaging required — which is the fifth-highest figure in the league, and the record is doing an efficient job of hiding it.
Useful next steps
What makes this more interesting than a bad start is that Jim Leonhard is on record twice, months apart, about the same system. In the preseason he explained what his new front was designed to unlock. In September he explained what it is actually producing. Both statements are his, which removes the usual ambiguity about whether an outside critic is being unfair, and leaves a cleaner question: is the gap between the two a design problem or an availability problem?
We're kind of a boom-or-bust defense. And that's not okay long-term. I think we're pretty much either three-and-out or touchdown after two games.— Jim Leonhard, Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator (via Sports Illustrated / Bills Central, Sept 22)
The preseason version of Leonhard was considerably more optimistic, and specifically about one player. He said he thought Ed Oliver was "going to be really disruptive in this defense," that the new system would give Oliver "a little more freedom than he's had in the past," and that it would "create some one-on-ones, isolate some guards, which all defensive linemen get excited about." Oliver has not played in either game. Leonhard has been explicit that the absence is material, praising a replacement by saying that "losing Ed, you needed somebody up front to really step up and have a huge one." A scheme built to isolate guards by using a specific interior lineman, run without that lineman, is a reasonable candidate for producing exactly the feast-or-famine pattern he is now describing.
Leonhard, twice, on the same defense
On Ed Oliver in the new front: "going to be really disruptive in this defense," with "a little more freedom than he's had in the past."
"We're kind of a boom-or-bust defense. And that's not okay long-term."
Oliver has not played a snap in either game, and Leonhard has said plainly that losing him forced others to step up.
31 allowed in each of the first two games — fifth-most in the NFL. 28th in points allowed, 28th in total yards, 30th against the pass.
Seven sacks — a genuinely good number sitting underneath a bad points total.
The Chargers next.
The numbers underneath the points total are genuinely split, which is why this stays an argument rather than a conclusion. Buffalo has seven sacks, and has allowed 546 net passing yards across the two games, the third-most in the league. The Bills sit twenty-eighth in points allowed, and SI records them sixth-worst in the league for yards conceded per game. That is the statistical signature of a defense that is aggressive and not yet coordinated rather than one that lacks players — you do not generate pressure like that with a talent problem, and you do not surrender 546 passing yards in a two-week span with a communication problem solved. The schedule will not be gentle about resolving it either. The Chargers arrive next, which is the first real test of whether the record has been hiding a flaw or simply outrunning one.
A coordinator publicly grading his own unit as boom-or-bust in September is either unusual candour or an early warning. Ed Oliver's return is the cleanest way to tell which.
Scheme or Availability
A brand-new system installed in a single offseason will look uncoordinated in September regardless of who is playing in it.
The front was described by its own coordinator as built to free one interior lineman, and that lineman has not played a snap.
Ed Oliver's first full game. If the boom-or-bust pattern survives his return, the design is the problem.
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Sources: Sports Illustrated / Bills Central — Week 3 opponent a get-right chance for ailing defense, NFL.com — Leonhard envisions 'really disruptive' Ed Oliver in new system, NFL.com — 2026 NFL team defense statistics